@Nick Batzdorf said:
James, I edit and publish a magazine and therefore get lots of press releases. I'm telling you that right now there isn't any noise about 64-bit software... as I keep saying over and over. Companies tend to publicize what they're about to come out with as soon as they can reasonably do so, for obvious reasons. Therefore I'm drawing conclusions that could well be off-base, but unfortunately are probably right.
Also, the 64-bit OS X will be backwards-compatible with 32-birt software (obviously, or every single program would have to be rewritten yet again). However, I've never heard anyone say that 64-bit DAWs will be backwards-compatible with 32-bit plug-ins. Chances are that every one of our instrument and processing plug-ins will have to be updated to run at 64 bits, i.e. I haven't heard anything that leads me to believe we'll be able to mix the two.
Heh, I wouldn't think to challenge your ear on the industry. I was just pointing out some facts about a particular piece of software that I happen to know a bit about. Beyond that, I wouldn't presume to know anything.
Just fyi, Sonar is using some sort of 32-bit thunking layer (they call it BitBridge) to allow 32-bit plugins to work in their 64-bit environment. This is certainly going to be a requirement for 64-bit computing to take off, as many musicians have obviously invested an enormous amount of money in 32-bit plug-ins, and it's likely that, for whatever reason, many of those will never be converted. If Cakewalk could figure out how to do this, I don't see any reason other vendors can't do the same.
I do agree with your assertion that widespread adoption is likely still a ways off for the bulk of the industry. And, notwithstanding those who will make the jump immediately when it's available, there are many with a fairly significant investment in 32-bit hardware that will probably wait for a more normal obsolescences cycle before buying new systems, and that means a few years past the initial hardware/software offerings even.
Naturally, it's all pure speculation. But, that's half the fun, no?